Fed may introduce raise after encouraging growth data

Federal Reserve officials could finally hike interest rates as early as next month as U.S. data showed that the economy grew at a faster rate in the last few months than previously forecast.

The GDP, representing total economic output, increased at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the last quarter according to the report released on Wednesday from the Department of Commerce.

Experts had estimated a 1.4 percent climb due to the worldwide economic decline as companies reined in spending. In comparison, the second quarter saw a rate of nearly 4 percent.

Recent reports suggest that the inventory cutbacks were not as severe as were previously thought. That sentiment was backed up by several pieces of research, like the one conducted by finance house CITIC Tokyo International, which showed the predictions were overestimated by about $30 billion.

“Possibly the government have got their figures wrong regarding the lengths to which many retailers were going regarding post-summer restocking,” said head analyst at Pantheon Macroeconomics, Ian Shepherdson.

He predicts that growth in the final quarter of 2015 will be 4 percent, slightly lower than many others are forecasting, due to the extra inventory purchasing companies will need to do as we come to the holiday season.

As far as consumer spending goes, Q3 was stable and growth positive at 2.8 percent annual rate. An important gauge of business investment was solid at 3.4 percent.

When all the figures are dialled in for total economic growth, the nation looks on course to match last year’s results, a steady 2.5 percent, not a bad result especially considering a significantly weak first quarter to 2015.

All this may result in the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates in the near future, possibly next month. Another positive indicator which may bring on the rate increase earlier was the jobs data which was very strong this month.

In an effort to kick start the economy after the global economic meltdown of 2008, the Fed have been reluctant to hike what has been dubbed the ‘federal funds rate’ lest they inadvertently discourage spending. 

If the market continues to improve they could find the need to adjust the rate soon as they look to hit the 2 percent annual target they have set themselves for inflation, not only to bring the country back to its former glories but also to stave off the Chinese in their bid to secure top spot in the economic rankings.

Fed may rethink hike plans after Q3 revision

Following more encouraging U.S. economic expansion than previously forecast, the Federal Reserve board may take the bold step of hiking interest rates before the end of the year.

The Commerce Department said third-quarter figures have been through a revision process and now say that total economic output (GDP) gained by 2.2 percent, up from the initial 1.6 percent forecast for the quarter.

The first estimate was explained by analysts as a reflection of steep cost-cutting by corporations totaling around $60 billion following the negative current global economic climate. This was after a stellar second quarter to the year, which saw a 4 percent increase in GDP.

After the authorities analyzed new data, they concluded that inventory declines in Q3 had not been as sharp as previously thought, around $20 billion, and the overall figure for growth was adjusted even further than most economists thought.

“I think U.S. retailers have stood firmly behind their businesses even in the face of the current global downturn, and the government has underestimated this kind of confidence,” said Pantheon Macroeconomics head analyst Ian Shepherdson. “The next quarter looks like it will perform well and we are forecasting at least 3 percent GDP growth.”

This sentiment was supported by a report from prominent investment firm CITIC Tokyo International who announced an increase of 15 percent in Japan’s exports to the U.S. compared to the same period a year previous.

America relies heavily on its consumer spending, which contributes over 60 percent to the nation’s economy. In the third quarter spending was good, expanding at 2.9 percent compared to Q2. Corporate expenditure was revised up to 2.5 percent compared to 3.9 percent in the second quarter.

“If all other factors remain stable we should be on for annual growth about the same as 2014, which was 2.3 percent,” said Bank of America senior analyst Brian Payne. “This is a fairly good result considering the recent climate, which has been effected greatly by oil prices and political events.”

The Federal Reserve now need to decide whether the overall economic data is strong enough to push rates off their current ultra-low levels which they have maintained for nearly seven years in an effort to stimulate the economy and drive growth back up to pre-financial crisis levels.

Their final decision may hinge on inflations figures and employment data that is due to be released later this month.

Chinese government says expansion target “is flexible”

Following yet another interest rate cut, its seventh in the past year, Beijing has said the 7 percent growth target for 2015 is not set in stone.

The announcement was made by the communist nation’s premier Li Keqiang on the eve of the ruling party’s annual meeting that will clarify many economic policies to be put into place over the next few years. It’s expected that many of the personnel appointments and other decisions made at the “plenum” will have a huge say in which of the country’s economic factions will be able to exert their influence in the short-term future.

The nation’s growth is not exactly in disarray, with 6.9 percent expansion figures that put most developed economies to shame. But that level is China’s lowest since the worst years of the global financial meltdown. Several other factors might also suggest the stellar growth phase might be coming to an end, such as much reduced steel consumption and energy usage. These are factors that China would normally depend on to drive the economy, despite their best attempts to diversify.

The general sentiment of Chinese politicians might continue to sink if the growth rate, which has traditionally carried a symbolic importance, continues to edge downwards. The full year figures are set to be China’s worst for 25-years, and could reflect the recent crackdown on protests by workers and student groups which threatened to deter overseas investment interests and derail economic reforms.

“We would say at this point in time that the 7 percent expansion target we have set ourselves is flexible,” said Mr Li in a paraphrased speech posted on the government’s website. “If we are within that general range then we consider this to be satisfactory considering all the changes that our economy is going through.”

Several investment and trading companies, such as market leader CITIC Tokyo International, are in agreement that the country can keep the growth in the 6-7 percent range over the next few years.

Economic reformers, which include the Chinese premier, are adamant that the country needs to focus more on developing and diversifying the economy rather than achieving absolute growth targets. Support from party members has been sporadic and the issue has split opinion.

Although debt levels are approaching dangerous levels, the reformers have succeeded in growing the nation’s service industry, which now accounts for around 50 percent of the country’s economy.

Alibaba and Tencent-backed start-ups to complete merger

Meituan.com, part-owned by Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, and Dianping.com, backed by Tencent Holdings Ltd, will look to tie-up their companies in a deal that would create a $20 billion behemoth in the handheld local services app industry.

People close to the discussions say the agreement should be tied up by the end of the week. The sources preferred to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of ongoing talks. Its thought Meituan’s shareholders will have a majority stake in the new entity with 55 percent, the sources claim.

It’s generally accepted that the use of smart phones and tablets to book everything from take-away food to taxi rides will become mainstream in the not-too-distant future, and China’s biggest internet firms are investing heavily in the industry, which is thought to be worth nearly $2 trillion annually already. According to IResearch, an internet consultancy institute, there is more than likely to be a 30 percent increase in users of location based services within the next two years.

The market leader in the industry currently is Baidu Inc, originally a search engine company, who runs its local services app Nuomi after an investment of over $3 billion in development. Meituan-Dianping would hope to compete at a similar kind of level.

Wang Weidong, a senior analyst at IResearch, said a combination of the two firms would mean “decreased cash burn and an opportunity for them to establish a level of dominance over competitors in the local services market”. This sentiment was supported by a similar report from investment firm CITIC Tokyo International who are specialists in group-buying companies.

Group-buying allows consumers to get heavy discounts on goods and services on the condition a minimum number of buyers would make the purchase, and many online services have sprung up in China catering to the niche market, most notably Groupon Inc. which currently dominates market share grabbing over half of all Chinese group-buying transactions in the first half of 2015.

Japanese refining pair to start merger talks

The exponentially contracting national gasoline market has prompted Japan’s biggest crude refiner, JX Holdings, to enter into preliminary discussions with main rival TonenGeneral Sekiyu in a possible merger agreement that would assume control of over 50% of the country’s petroleum market.

JX are currently expanding abroad and need to shore up domestic earnings under its Eneos brand of retail gas stations in order to finance the overseas push.

The dominance of JX is being challenged as their closest rivals, Idemitsu Kosan Co., announced last year they had a deal in place to takeover Showa Shell Sekiyu KK in a $5 billion deal.

Japan’s economy ministry, and the finance minister himself, Taro Aso, have been encouraging the sector to consolidate for many years, and it’s thought the government backing will be enough to push the two deals through regulatory approval without any issues.

According to a report by CITIC Tokyo International, the sector has been suffering as car engines become increasingly fuel efficient and severe oversupply continues to have a negative effect not just on the industry at home but also on the competitiveness of the country’s refiners overseas.

TonenGeneral and JX holdings have projected that their profits should skyrocket with the merger by about 100 billion yen annually. The merger is set to be completely finalized by March 2017 and together they will operate over 15,000 petrol stations domestically.

“Our two businesses recognize the need to eliminate any overlapping with regard to refineries and other infrastructure, especially in the current climate,” both companies said in a joint press release.

The opinion has been shared by many large finance firms who deal with the crude market, including CITIC Tokyo International, who also mentioned in the report that Japan’s petrol consumption had seen a 3-4% fall over the past ten years, and prices are at new 5 year lows.

JX Holdings became the country’s largest refiner in 2010 as a result of a merger between Mining Holdings and Nippon Oil Corp. and is almost twice the size of TonenGeneral in terms of market capitalization.

When the current deal goes through it’s thought the new company will be one of the nations biggest across all industries.

JX has been increasingly active in global oil-and-gas M&A as it seeks to expand across Asia and the North Sea in an attempt to tie up its sales and logistics components into a worldwide network.

Markets boosted by U.S. growth revision

An update to United States expansion figures has shown the economy grew more than previously thought through the second quarter of the year, giving markets a much needed boost as shares and oil prices both soared by nearly 10 percent.

The revision shows that the economy expanded at a rate of 3.8 percent annualized, representing a 2.4 percent upward revision to primary data. The first quarter results were not changed.

Many analysts say the revision is down to much increased corporate investment, especially from Asian conglomerates into America, and this was backed up by comments from the director of Japanese headquartered investment firm CITIC Tokyo International at a recent economic conference in Beijing, where he said capital investments stateside had risen by 15 percent compared to Q1.

There was also positive news regarding inventories, which were higher than initially predicted by the Commerce Department.

Moral among investors has been low on the back of a chaotic week that saw markets falling badly in response to heightened fears that the world’s second largest economy, China, was faltering. So the current news was more than welcome and the revision was much higher than most expected.

“To be honest it’s just what the doctor ordered for investors around the world, and in the U.S. in particular,” said Close Brothers Asset Management’s head of strategies, Nancy Curtin, in a phone interview for Bloomberg yesterday. “The markets have been more turbulent than usual amid fears of China’s slowdown, so the GDP revision is a much needed boost to confidence.”

In response to the news, oil prices soared from their 6-year low point by 11 percent, but prices were still below the $50 benchmark despite the gains. Shares also rose significantly, adding to an already stellar morning session in the stock markets. The major European exchanges all closed up more than 4 percent, with Wall Street also improving as the Dow Jones rose 366.73 points.

Revisions to the official figures are important as they are a key signal as to whether the Federal Reserve will look to change interest rates. Board members had been particularly coy on any firm announcements recently but the general sentiment has been to hold off on any hike due to the turbulent nature of the stock markets and China’s economic woes.

The current news might be an influencing factor, and some observers say the Fed may be thinking about a rate rise within the next three to six months on the back of the GDP revision.

Chinese slowdown a headache for markets

Investors around the world continue to be spooked by the economic woes of China, and stock markets have taken a steep nosedive as a result.

All the major markets in Europe dropped by around 5 percent including London's FTSE 100 index which closed down 4.7 percent at 5,898.86 with losses essentially wiping over 70 billion pounds from the index due to the falls.

In a manic day in New York, the Dow Jones dropped 7 percent, and although it fought well to recover half the losses it still closed down 3.5 percent. Traders looked on in despair as the Dow fell below 16,000 for the first time in 2-years before its miraculous recovery late in the afternoon.

The Nadaq sank 9 percent but recovered to post only a 3.4 percent loss at closing, while the S&P 500 also lost 4 percent.

Chinese markets fared no better with the Shanghai Composite suffering its worst closing for 7-years with a 9 percent loss. Trading firm CITIC Tokyo International announced it was revising its Chinese capital inflow plan at the end of the hectic day.

Almost 100 billion pounds were wiped off the FTSE before the semi-recovery, and traders in the U.S. were aware that this wasn’t going to be the usual quiet Monday on the floor even before the New York stock exchange opened and the Dow plunged a monumental 1090 points, a record point’s drop.

A sharp slowdown in China, the world’s second largest economy, has set investors on edge in recent months. The sense of panic was palpable and one floor trader mentioned that he had bitten through all his fingernails just minutes after the opening bell in New York.

Another trader said the short-term outlook seemed bleak but that it didn’t feel to him like a re-run of the 1987 crash. Deep Value chief analyst Stephen Guilfoyle said, “Tensions are high and it looks like the markets are looking down the barrel, but I remember 1987 and this is nothing like it.”

Guilfoyle’s remarks proved true as US markets stormed back late in the day to reduce the losses by nearly half.